The world this century is characterized by a global demographic divide, said Jennifer D. Sciubba, where some countries are trending young, with rapidly growing populations, while the grand majority of the world is trending gray, with smaller populations.
With her book 8 Billion and Counting: How Sex, Death, and Migration Shape Our World, Sciubba will shape her lecture at 10:45 a.m. today in the Amphitheater to open Week Four’s Chautauqua Lecture Series “Eight Billion and Counting: The Future of Humankind in a Crowded World.”
Sciubba is a former tenured professor at Rhodes College in Memphis, Tennessee, and served as a demographics consultant to the U.S. Office of the Secretary of Defense (Policy). She currently serves as vice chair of the board of the Population Reference Bureau.
During her lecture, Sciubba said she plans to explore how evolving demographics are affecting areas like healthcare, politics, labor, and migration, and take a bigger-picture look at the scope of changing demographics.
“The world population is still going to be growing for probably around the next 50 or so years,” she said. “But, at the same time, our average age will go up and an increasing number of countries will be shrinking.”
The growing life expectancy reflects a point in history — and healthcare — where non-communicable diseases like cancer and heart disease are the main killers, rather than ones that spread through populations.
“We have essentially added an extra life to people over the last couple of centuries and we live so much longer,” she said. “At this global level, we see a picture of tremendously increasing longevity and better health.”
What does this mean for the political landscape? For Sciubba, who is a leading expert on demographic trends and their implications for politics, economics, and social relationships, a big question is whether or not the size of a demographic group translates to political power.
“We’re in a country right now with an election, where the two candidates are much older people. That seems to give a lot of credence to that idea that the political power becomes concentrated in those hands,” she said. “Population aging is such a new trend. We don’t really understand that much about it.”
Jobs and immigration are a big part of this conversation. High-income countries, with the oldest populations, have labor shortages, even in high-skilled jobs; while low-income countries are having issues filling these slots. Migration, she said, is a key factor that will “shape politics for several decades,” and countries that have historically had low immigration rates are starting to ask themselves if they are equipped to welcome more immigrants.
It is important to note, Sciubba said, that with demographic changes and a growing population, there are some issues to consider.
“Policymakers these days are saying that we really need to find a way to increase consumption in shrinking countries. And that’s totally antithetical to the environmental goals that we have,” she said. “How do you reconcile these very disparate goals — economic and environmental goals?”
Sciubba wants people to consider how gender and healthcare comes into play with these changes. Women often get blamed for not having enough children, or having too many children, meanwhile there are very few solutions being offered for the lack of care infrastructure around the world.
“The demands on care are increasing as populations age,” she said, “and that’s something I think that needs to be at the forefront of our discussions.”
