Deborah Trefts
Staff Writer
If — sooner than later — the United States acts wisely and strategically, the People’s Republic of China will not be destined to surpass America as the world’s preeminent military and economic power, despite President Xi Jinping’s grand plan and steadfast belief that it will.
So contends international corporate lawyer Dennis Unkovic, the author of The Fragility of China: Breaking Points of an Invincible Regime (2024), Transforming the Global Supply Chain: Cyber Warfare, Technology and Politics (2021), Asia Ascending: Insider Strategies for Competing with the Global Colossus (2018), nine other books and numerous articles.
At 3 p.m. Saturday in the Hall of Philosophy, Unkovic will open the 2025 Contemporary Issues Forum — programmed by the Chautauqua Women’s Club — with a speech titled, “The Fragility of China: What’s Next?”
“China is the single most powerful competitor the U.S. has ever had,” he said. “It’s an enormous country led by a leader (who) is very competent. … Xi wants China to be the world’s military and economic leader and trading power. The U.S. needs to take China more seriously than it does.”
On his website and in The Fragility of China, Unkovic identifies what he has termed “MaxTrends.”
These are developments or events with potential long-term, measureable national impacts that could also significantly alter world commerce and the global economy. Nevertheless, they are underappreciated by national and global leaders.
Unkovic contends that governments, industries, companies and individuals tuning in to these “breaking points” — before they are widely recognized and accepted as occurring — have a competitive advantage because they can take action to avoid problems and catastrophes.
“China may be in its ascendancy, but MaxTrends have the potential to redirect, or in some cases prevent, Xi Jinping and the Chinese Communist Party from achieving their ambitious international agenda,” wrote Unkovic in The Fragility of China. “How China recognizes and then addresses these MaxTrends will ultimately determine the course of its future.”
In his book, Unkovic devotes a chapter to each of the 13 MaxTrends. At least one — China’s fractured global supply chain — includes several additional MaxTrends that serve to accelerate its supply chain fracture.
Other breaking points he has identified include China’s unique demographics, declining economic growth, the One China policy that Unkovic said could lead to a global war over Taiwan, water shortage, worsening pollution and climate change policies.
China’s costly ambitions for a blue-water navy with both defensive and offensive capabilities — including air power and submarines — within and beyond the South China Sea (beneath which lies enormous untapped oil and gas reserves) may serve Xi’s immediate military goals but are ominous for nations far and wide.
Unkovic said he’s “terrified they’ll succeed.” Although the United States possesses 360 ships that are “bigger and better,” China currently has 400 ships.
During his CIF talk, he will highlight China’s “Five Most MaxTrends” and focus on four of the strategies with which he wants the United States to move forward.
“I’ve been fascinated with China all of my life,” Unkovic said.
As a second semester senior at the University of Virginia in Charlottesville in 1970, in the midst of the Vietnam War, he took courses on China and Japan that “absorbed (his) interest.”
The following fall, he entered the University of Pittsburgh Law School.
For the three years he was a law student, Unkovic earned $5 per hour as a caseworker for then-U.S. Rep. H. John Heinz III, which he said “trained (him) well to be a lawyer.” He was also active in local politics.
Upon graduation in 1973, he moved to Washington, D.C. to serve as the Legislative Director for the U.S. Senate’s Minority Leader and foremost China expert, Republican Sen. Hugh D. Scott from Pennsylvania.
From Feb. 21 to 28, 1972, President Richard M. Nixon had visited Beijing, China’s capital.
“Nixon got a lot of bad press because of bad things he did,” Unkovic said. “But in 1972, he totally reversed the view of what the U.S. relationship should be with China. We had the biggest anticommunist (person) in the U.S. going to China.”
Then just four months later, on June 17, 1972, the Watergate break-in occurred. Its attempted cover-up led to a major political scandal implicating the president.
Unkovic said that on Aug. 7, 1974, Scott was one of a delegation of three Congressional Republican leaders called to meet with Nixon in the White House.
They informed the president that he no longer had the support of the Republican Party in Congress. Therefore, he did not have enough votes to prevent his impeachment for obstruction of justice, abuse of power and contempt of Congress.
As Scott’s legislative counsel, Unkovic said he met with the senator every morning to brief him about the top three bills (proposed legislation) for the Senate that day.
“In August 1974, Scott threw me out of his office one day and then the next,” he continued. “And the third day he said, ‘Look in The Washington Post tomorrow.’ ”
According to Unkovic, the newspaper’s headline read, “Republican leaders meet with Nixon.” There was also a picture.
Scott told him about this tense meeting, which had concluded with the president telling Scott, Sen. Barry Goldwater, and House Minority Leader John J. Rhodes not to say anything, but he would be resigning the next day — Aug. 8, 1974.
“Nixon was a patriot,” Unkovic said. “His whole life was about being president.”
After Scott decided not to seek another six-year term, Unkovic returned to Pittsburgh in 1976 and ran as a Republican candidate for Congress in Pennsylvania’s 18th district, which included the city of Pittsburgh and sections of surrounding suburbs.
“I was the youngest and least successful candidate for Congress,” Unkovic said. “I was 28 or 29. I said, there’s a big problem with the social security fund, and if we don’t fix it, we’ll be in trouble. I wanted to fix it. People thought I meant to axe social security.”
Thereafter, he set his mind to becoming a practicing attorney. “Early on I decided I wanted to be an international corporate lawyer,” he said.
For decades, Unkovic has been a senior partner with the Pittsburgh law firm Meyer, Unkovic & Scott, LLP.
In every annual edition of The Best Lawyers in America published by Woodward/White since 2003, he has been named for inclusion. From 2015 to 2018, he served as the chairman of the Meritas, a global legal referral network and an “alliance of leading independent law firms” throughout the world.
Unkovic’s work has included advising American businesses and foreign entities about their international activities and investments; negotiating and structuring commercial transactions, mergers, acquisitions and joint ventures; providing advice about direct foreign investment projects; and serving as an International Centre for Dispute Resolution arbitrator or party counsel.
“When things got too expensive to make in the U.S, companies would travel around the world to find the least expensive place,” Unkovic said. “… Boston Consulting Group and all the others sold ‘Just-In-Time’ manufacturing to all of the American companies.”
Recently, “China has gotten too expensive,” he said. “I took a lot of companies (there), and then to Malaysia, Vietnam and India. For 20 years, I helped companies find foreign sources.”
Since 1982, Unkovic has given presentations far and wide and traveled to more than 65 countries. He has frequently been involved in transactions in China, as well as in India, Japan, Korea, Southeast Asia and Europe.
Unkovic’s top take-home message, based on decades of professional experience, is that the United States “should make China America’s No. 1 priority going forward.”
