ARIANNA NEVAREZ
Staff Writer
With high levels of polarization among the U.S. electorate and very narrow margins in Congress, Kathryn Dunn Tenpas said the upcoming midterms are truly unique.
“Sometimes in our American system, these midterm elections — in the House of Representatives at least — there’s a lot of uncompetitive races, and there’s really not much up for grabs,” Tenpas said. “It’s pretty predictable, and so it really comes down to roughly 38 seats that will determine the future majority in the House and the Senate.”
Closing out Week Three, Tenpas will be joined by Kevin R. Kosar to explain today’s electoral context, unconventional wisdom and examine possible outcomes of the election.
Tenpas, a visiting fellow in Governance Studies at Brookings Institution and director of the Initiative on Improving Interbranch Relations and Government, focuses on presidential personnel and researches turnover rates for senior executives.
Kosar is a senior fellow at American Enterprise Institute, where he studies the U.S. Congress, the administrative state, American politics, election reform and the U.S. Postal Service. He currently edits Understanding Congress and hosts the “Understanding Congress” podcast.
“[The conversation] is an opportunity for folks to get straight, honest analysis from people who work at the two leading think tanks in Washington, D.C.,” Kosar said. “Neither of us has an agenda. We’re not trying to persuade anybody of anything. We’re not on anybody’s team. You’re just going to get the best thoughts that we can share.”
As Congress is one of his main focuses, Kosar said what is represented in the media is people yelling at each other; however, he said less salient nonpartisan work is also happening.
“I’m not one of the people who says, ‘My goodness, democracy is dying. Authoritarianism is arriving.’ No, our republic still stands,” Kosar said.
Kosar said midterm congressional elections don’t get high voter turnout, yet he said the results could lead to “very different things happening in Washington, D.C.” He said people need to go to the ballot boxes because if they don’t, others will decide what America will look like.
“The question is: Do you want to be part of that decision-making process, or do you want others making decisions in our self-governing society? It’s your choice,” Kosar said. “Some people choose [to] opt out of it, but when you opt out of it, you also have to ask yourself: Do I have any basis for complaining? If I’m not part of the process, if I’m not making my voice heard at the ballot box, or if I’m not writing letters to my senators and my members of Congress and expressing how I feel, then don’t be surprised if the system doesn’t do what you want.”
Tenpas said that although she is not an election scholar, studying the president has given her a different lens through which to look at the upcoming election. She said it is an unusual election because it is rare to have a president serve two terms non-sequentially, leading to lower levels of party allegiance to President Donald Trump because he is not eligible for re-election.
Tenpas said the midterms will be about more than an election; they will forecast the future.
“It’s talking much more about American politics more broadly and the moment that we are in, whether it’s voter turnout, whether it’s polarization across the electorate, and the Congress gerrymandering,” Tenpas said. “There’s lots of issues at play besides just the election day outcome, and elections have consequences.”
